The first two weekends of the NFL playoffs featured five one-score games, three big upsets, and one historic come-from-behind win, but I cant shake the feeling that we could be in store for a far more normal conference championship weekend. Thats not to say the football will be bad. It will, after all, feature the likes of and the rest of the high-flying offense, one-man wrecking crew , a dominant defense, and a first ballot Hall of Famer in . Thats an attractive group of headliners. The 49ers and went a combined 26-6 in the regular season with both teams contributing equally to those totals. The Chiefs won three more games than the in the regular season, but one of their four lo ses came Premier League Jersey against the same Titans team theyll face on Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl at stake. But both the AFC and NFC Championship Games feature two big home favorites. I happen to think both home favorites, the Chiefs and the 49ers, will have their way with le ser foes, the Titans and the Packers. Ill explain why in more detail below, but I will say that if the Chiefs and 49ers both do win, I think its for the best. I think a 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl would be the best po sible matchup remaining. Itd feature the sports two best play-callers in Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan, the worlds best quarterback in Mahomes, and the best remaining defense in the 49ers. Its the matchup Im rooting for, but thats not the reason why Im taking both the 49ers and the Chiefs to win and cover this weekend. Im taking them because I believe theyre both that much better than their opposition. Below, I explain why. Last week: 2-2 Playoff record: 4-4 Regular-season best-bets record: 43-41-1 best of the americans (@bestofamericans) Chiefs -7 vs. Titans I know the Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 when they met in Nashville back in Week 10, but in order for that to have happened, everything needed to go wrong for the Chiefs and everything needed to go right for the Titans. Im not so certain thatll happen again. I dont think we can count on the Chiefs to be as sloppy as they were 10 weeks ago. In that game, the Chiefs kicked field goals on: Fourth-and-2 from the 12Fourth-and-3 from the 23Fourth-and-2 from the 25The Titans also scored a defensive touchdown on a 53-yard fumble return. In the final 90 seconds, the Chiefs squandered a five-point lead when they botched a field goal attempt, with unable to salvage a low snap, which the Titans turned into a game-winning touchdown drive. But Mahomes calmly led the Chiefs into field-goal range, only to see -- who already mi sed an extra point earlier in the game -- get his game-tying field goal blocked. The Chiefs special teams finished the regular season and Butker went 34 of 38 on field goals and 45 of 48 on extra points. The Titans cannot expect the Chiefs to botch their kicking game nearly as badly as they did back in Week 10. The Chiefs were also penalized nine times for 80 yards. In other words, this was an extraordinarily sloppy performance by a team that normally isnt sloppy. Thats why they lost to the Titans despite outgaining them 530 to 371 and holding the ball for nearly 38 minutes. While its also true the Chiefs were sloppy in the early going of their win over the on Sunday, which resulted in a 24-0 deficit, its also true that the Chiefs played a near-flawle s game after that point, scoring touchdowns on seven straight drives to win the game by 20 points. As Andy Reid said after the game, their sloppy start, featuring dropped pa ses and two huge special teams miscues, was very uncharacteristic of any otherwise disciplined team. Thats not us. It was just a matter of settling down and getting it right.Andy Reid on how he adjusted his team after trailing 24-0 in the 2nd quarter. CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) Whats concerning, though, is how dominant Derrick Henry has been over the past eight games. Derrick Henrys last eight games:203 carries1,273 rushing yards6.27 YPC11 TDsHenry has set a new all-time record for most rushing yards in any 8-game stretch in NFL history. Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) That eight-game stretch actually began against the Chiefs in Week 10, when Henry exploded for 188 yards and two scores on only 23 carries for an average of 8.2 yards per carry. While its true that the Chiefs defense is, which should give Henry an opportunity to inflict damage in their rematch, the Chiefs defense has also improved against the run since that game. In their seven games since, theyre allowing 4.5 yards per carry. In their first 10 games, they allowed 5.1 yards per carry. Still, Henry should get his. At this point, hes pretty much unstoppable. What the Chiefs have, though, is an offense that is explosive enough to force the Titans to abandon the run as they try to keep pace with Mahomes. We just watched Mahomes turn a 24-0 deficit into a 28-24 lead in the span of a single quarter. We just saw him lead the Chiefs to touchdowns on seven straight series. He should be able to exploit a Titans defense that ranks 16th in DVOA, I dont want to take anything away from the Titans and what theyve done the past couple weeks, upsetting the and the on the road. But the Titans arent facing the Patriots zombie-paced offense in this game. Theyre probably not going to generate three takeaways like they did against the Ravens considering Mahomes threw an interception on only one percent of his pa ses in the regular season. Theyre probably going to give up a ton of points to the Chiefs, because nearly every team in football gives up a ton of points to the Chiefs. That means the game will come down to the Titans ability to keep pace with Mahomes. I love what has done this season. I ranked him as in the playoffs when the playoffs started and heading into conference championship weekend. But theres a chasm between Tannehill and Mahomes. Again, thats not intended to be a criticism of Tannehill. Its more of a testament to Mahomes greatne s. Furthermore, Tannehill will be going up against a defense that is sixth against the pa s by DVOA. Its a far more difficult matchup than Mahomes matchup against the Titans defense. The Chiefs have the best quarterback on the planet, a defense that is nothing like the defense that cost them a spot in last seasons Super Bowl, and theyre at home. I think theyre going to pick up where they left off last weekend and open up a big lead over the Titans, and the Titans wont be able to hang. Ill take the Chiefs to win and cover the seven-point spread. The Chiefs, by the way, are 11-5-1 against the spread, including 4-2-1 when theyre favored by seven points or more. Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in the AFC Championship Game and the NFC Championship Game? And which strong picks against the spread should you lock in? Visit SportsLine now to see their, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks. 49ers -7.5 vs. Packers Kyle Shanahan is right. for the 49ers to waltz into their matchup against Athletic Bilbao Jersey the Packers and a sume that because they clobbered them 37-8 back in Week 12, theyll do it again on Sunday. The 49ers probably wont beat the Packers by 29 points again. But I do think theyll win by more than seven points. , Sundays game will be the 37th time in the Super Bowl era that there will be a playoff game involving two teams that played each other in the regular season in a game that saw one of those two teams win by 25-plus points. In the rematch, the team that won the first time around is 22-14 -- including 7-2 in the conference championship round. History aside, the 49ers have the better team. Im not certain theres that big of a difference between the two quarterbacks right now (obviously, Rodgers is significantly better from a historical perspective). Jimmy Garoppolo has a tendency to turn the ball over more often than Rodgers, but he is also far more efficient than Rodgers. Comp. % YPA TD% INT% Rating Garoppolo 69.1 8.4 5.7 2.7 102.0 Rodgers 62.0 7.0 4.6 0.7 95.4 The indicate that the two quarterbacks arent that far apart in terms of their value. DYAR DVOA Total QBR Garoppolo 12th 11th 12th Rodgers 8th 13th 20th But the 49ers are the far better team, even though they both won 13 games in the regular season. The 49ers outscored their opposition by 169 points. The Packers outscored their opposition by 63 points. Only the Ravens and Patriots had better point differentials than the 49ers. The Packers, meanwhile, were sandwiched between the Titans and the . The 49ers were . The Packers were 10th. This doesnt make the Packers a bad team. Theyre 13-3 and in the NFC title game. Theyre very clearly good. But theyre not as good as the 49ers. A seasons worth of data tells us that. The biggest concern for the 49ers is their quarterback after he struggled against the in his playoff debut, going 11 of 19 for 131 yards, one touchdown, one terrible interception, and a 74.7 pa ser rating. But Garoppolo has demonstrated an ability to bounce back this season. He followed up a bad performance against the in Week 7 (not that unlike his performance against the Vikings) by lighting up the . He followed up a bad performance against the in Week 10 with a 424-yard, four-touchdown game against the . He followed up a bad performance against the in Week 16 by completing 81.8 percent of his pa ses and averaging 13 yards per attempt against the Seahawks in the game that decided the fate of the NFC West. And Garoppolo has an enticing matchup on Sunday against a Packers defense that is Against Green Bay in Week 12, he completed 70 percent of his pa ses, averaged 12.7 yards per attempt, threw two touchdowns and no interceptions, and posted a 145.8 pa ser rating. Armed with one of the games best play-callers, Garoppolo should be able to bounce back again. Im not so certain Rodgers, who is coming off a stellar performance against the Seahawks , which snapped a month-long stretch of poor play, will find succe s against the 49ers second-ranked defense. Rodgers had one of the best games of his season against the Seahawks. The last time he saw the 49ers, he had one of the worst games of his career, averaging 3.2 yards per attempt. Another way to look at this: Aaron Rodgers game-by-game EPA/play. Seattles defense gave up his 3rd-highest of the season by a pretty good margin new-age analytical (@benbbaldwin) I dont think Rodgers will submit a disastrous performance again. But I think hes going to struggle to find openings against a defensive front four that can generate pre sure without the help of extra rushers, which allows the 49ers to keep seven men back in coverage. One of those men? , who continues to lock down one side of the field even at the age of 31. Last weekend, targeted him only once in the first half. When he did target him early in the third quarter, he got picked off. Rodgers, one of the most risk averse quarterbacks in football, will likely look elsewhere (. While Rodgers will likely find more succe s to his left, cutting the field in half is never good for an offense. Ill take the 49ers to beat the Packers by more than seven points because I think their quarterback has the better matchup, their defense is far superior, and theyre playing at home. It wont be a 29-point blowout again, but it also wont be particularly close. It will, however, set up the best Super Bowl matchup out of the remaining po sibilities.
The first two weekends of the NFL playoffs featured five one-score games, three big upsets, and one historic come-from-behind win, but I cant shake the feeling that we could be in store for a far more normal conference championship weekend. Thats not to say the football will be bad. It will, after all, feature the likes of and the rest of the high-flying offense, one-man wrecking crew , a dominant defense, and a first ballot Hall of Famer in . Thats an attractive group of headliners. The 49ers and went a combined 26-6 in the regular season with both teams contributing equally to those totals. The Chiefs won three more games than the in the regular season, but one of their four lo ses came Premier League Jersey against the same Titans team theyll face on Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl at stake. But both the AFC and NFC Championship Games feature two big home favorites. I happen to think both home favorites, the Chiefs and the 49ers, will have their way with le ser foes, the Titans and the Packers. Ill explain why in more detail below, but I will say that if the Chiefs and 49ers both do win, I think its for the best. I think a 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl would be the best po sible matchup remaining. Itd feature the sports two best play-callers in Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan, the worlds best quarterback in Mahomes, and the best remaining defense in the 49ers. Its the matchup Im rooting for, but thats not the reason why Im taking both the 49ers and the Chiefs to win and cover this weekend. Im taking them because I believe theyre both that much better than their opposition. Below, I explain why. Last week: 2-2 Playoff record: 4-4 Regular-season best-bets record: 43-41-1 best of the americans (@bestofamericans) Chiefs -7 vs. Titans I know the Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 when they met in Nashville back in Week 10, but in order for that to have happened, everything needed to go wrong for the Chiefs and everything needed to go right for the Titans. Im not so certain thatll happen again. I dont think we can count on the Chiefs to be as sloppy as they were 10 weeks ago. In that game, the Chiefs kicked field goals on: Fourth-and-2 from the 12Fourth-and-3 from the 23Fourth-and-2 from the 25The Titans also scored a defensive touchdown on a 53-yard fumble return. In the final 90 seconds, the Chiefs squandered a five-point lead when they botched a field goal attempt, with unable to salvage a low snap, which the Titans turned into a game-winning touchdown drive. But Mahomes calmly led the Chiefs into field-goal range, only to see -- who already mi sed an extra point earlier in the game -- get his game-tying field goal blocked. The Chiefs special teams finished the regular season and Butker went 34 of 38 on field goals and 45 of 48 on extra points. The Titans cannot expect the Chiefs to botch their kicking game nearly as badly as they did back in Week 10. The Chiefs were also penalized nine times for 80 yards. In other words, this was an extraordinarily sloppy performance by a team that normally isnt sloppy. Thats why they lost to the Titans despite outgaining them 530 to 371 and holding the ball for nearly 38 minutes. While its also true the Chiefs were sloppy in the early going of their win over the on Sunday, which resulted in a 24-0 deficit, its also true that the Chiefs played a near-flawle s game after that point, scoring touchdowns on seven straight drives to win the game by 20 points. As Andy Reid said after the game, their sloppy start, featuring dropped pa ses and two huge special teams miscues, was very uncharacteristic of any otherwise disciplined team. Thats not us. It was just a matter of settling down and getting it right.Andy Reid on how he adjusted his team after trailing 24-0 in the 2nd quarter. CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) Whats concerning, though, is how dominant Derrick Henry has been over the past eight games. Derrick Henrys last eight games:203 carries1,273 rushing yards6.27 YPC11 TDsHenry has set a new all-time record for most rushing yards in any 8-game stretch in NFL history. Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) That eight-game stretch actually began against the Chiefs in Week 10, when Henry exploded for 188 yards and two scores on only 23 carries for an average of 8.2 yards per carry. While its true that the Chiefs defense is, which should give Henry an opportunity to inflict damage in their rematch, the Chiefs defense has also improved against the run since that game. In their seven games since, theyre allowing 4.5 yards per carry. In their first 10 games, they allowed 5.1 yards per carry. Still, Henry should get his. At this point, hes pretty much unstoppable. What the Chiefs have, though, is an offense that is explosive enough to force the Titans to abandon the run as they try to keep pace with Mahomes. We just watched Mahomes turn a 24-0 deficit into a 28-24 lead in the span of a single quarter. We just saw him lead the Chiefs to touchdowns on seven straight series. He should be able to exploit a Titans defense that ranks 16th in DVOA, I dont want to take anything away from the Titans and what theyve done the past couple weeks, upsetting the and the on the road. But the Titans arent facing the Patriots zombie-paced offense in this game. Theyre probably not going to generate three takeaways like they did against the Ravens considering Mahomes threw an interception on only one percent of his pa ses in the regular season. Theyre probably going to give up a ton of points to the Chiefs, because nearly every team in football gives up a ton of points to the Chiefs. That means the game will come down to the Titans ability to keep pace with Mahomes. I love what has done this season. I ranked him as in the playoffs when the playoffs started and heading into conference championship weekend. But theres a chasm between Tannehill and Mahomes. Again, thats not intended to be a criticism of Tannehill. Its more of a testament to Mahomes greatne s. Furthermore, Tannehill will be going up against a defense that is sixth against the pa s by DVOA. Its a far more difficult matchup than Mahomes matchup against the Titans defense. The Chiefs have the best quarterback on the planet, a defense that is nothing like the defense that cost them a spot in last seasons Super Bowl, and theyre at home. I think theyre going to pick up where they left off last weekend and open up a big lead over the Titans, and the Titans wont be able to hang. Ill take the Chiefs to win and cover the seven-point spread. The Chiefs, by the way, are 11-5-1 against the spread, including 4-2-1 when theyre favored by seven points or more. Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in the AFC Championship Game and the NFC Championship Game? And which strong picks against the spread should you lock in? Visit SportsLine now to see their, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks. 49ers -7.5 vs. Packers Kyle Shanahan is right. for the 49ers to waltz into their matchup against Athletic Bilbao Jersey the Packers and a sume that because they clobbered them 37-8 back in Week 12, theyll do it again on Sunday. The 49ers probably wont beat the Packers by 29 points again. But I do think theyll win by more than seven points. , Sundays game will be the 37th time in the Super Bowl era that there will be a playoff game involving two teams that played each other in the regular season in a game that saw one of those two teams win by 25-plus points. In the rematch, the team that won the first time around is 22-14 -- including 7-2 in the conference championship round. History aside, the 49ers have the better team. Im not certain theres that big of a difference between the two quarterbacks right now (obviously, Rodgers is significantly better from a historical perspective). Jimmy Garoppolo has a tendency to turn the ball over more often than Rodgers, but he is also far more efficient than Rodgers. Comp. % YPA TD% INT% Rating Garoppolo 69.1 8.4 5.7 2.7 102.0 Rodgers 62.0 7.0 4.6 0.7 95.4 The indicate that the two quarterbacks arent that far apart in terms of their value. DYAR DVOA Total QBR Garoppolo 12th 11th 12th Rodgers 8th 13th 20th But the 49ers are the far better team, even though they both won 13 games in the regular season. The 49ers outscored their opposition by 169 points. The Packers outscored their opposition by 63 points. Only the Ravens and Patriots had better point differentials than the 49ers. The Packers, meanwhile, were sandwiched between the Titans and the . The 49ers were . The Packers were 10th. This doesnt make the Packers a bad team. Theyre 13-3 and in the NFC title game. Theyre very clearly good. But theyre not as good as the 49ers. A seasons worth of data tells us that. The biggest concern for the 49ers is their quarterback after he struggled against the in his playoff debut, going 11 of 19 for 131 yards, one touchdown, one terrible interception, and a 74.7 pa ser rating. But Garoppolo has demonstrated an ability to bounce back this season. He followed up a bad performance against the in Week 7 (not that unlike his performance against the Vikings) by lighting up the . He followed up a bad performance against the in Week 10 with a 424-yard, four-touchdown game against the . He followed up a bad performance against the in Week 16 by completing 81.8 percent of his pa ses and averaging 13 yards per attempt against the Seahawks in the game that decided the fate of the NFC West. And Garoppolo has an enticing matchup on Sunday against a Packers defense that is Against Green Bay in Week 12, he completed 70 percent of his pa ses, averaged 12.7 yards per attempt, threw two touchdowns and no interceptions, and posted a 145.8 pa ser rating. Armed with one of the games best play-callers, Garoppolo should be able to bounce back again. Im not so certain Rodgers, who is coming off a stellar performance against the Seahawks , which snapped a month-long stretch of poor play, will find succe s against the 49ers second-ranked defense. Rodgers had one of the best games of his season against the Seahawks. The last time he saw the 49ers, he had one of the worst games of his career, averaging 3.2 yards per attempt. Another way to look at this: Aaron Rodgers game-by-game EPA/play. Seattles defense gave up his 3rd-highest of the season by a pretty good margin new-age analytical (@benbbaldwin) I dont think Rodgers will submit a disastrous performance again. But I think hes going to struggle to find openings against a defensive front four that can generate pre sure without the help of extra rushers, which allows the 49ers to keep seven men back in coverage. One of those men? , who continues to lock down one side of the field even at the age of 31. Last weekend, targeted him only once in the first half. When he did target him early in the third quarter, he got picked off. Rodgers, one of the most risk averse quarterbacks in football, will likely look elsewhere (. While Rodgers will likely find more succe s to his left, cutting the field in half is never good for an offense. Ill take the 49ers to beat the Packers by more than seven points because I think their quarterback has the better matchup, their defense is far superior, and theyre playing at home. It wont be a 29-point blowout again, but it also wont be particularly close. It will, however, set up the best Super Bowl matchup out of the remaining po sibilities.